Our call of the day suggests the bears are likely to be everywhere at Dalal Street.

*Morning Action @ 7 AM – Monday, November 18th 2024*

# Our call of the day suggests the bears are likely to be everywhere at Dalal Street.

The biggest wall of worry continues to be persistent FIIs selling. Please note, FII exodus crosses Rs 29,533 crore this November.

# The Big Question: Immediate downside risk on Nifty?

Caution shall continue to be the buzzword for the benchmark Nifty. Downside risk for Nifty seen at its biggest interweek support at 23167 mark.

7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
# GIFT Nifty 🇮🇳: (23445, Down 196 points from Thursday’s close)
# Dow Futures: (+51, 43494)
# Nasdaq 100 Futures (+105, 20499)

# Nikkei (-246, 38394)

# Dow Jones (-306, 43445)
# Nasdaq (-428, 18680)
# Bovespa (+58, 127792).

MARKET TRENDS:
# Global: Negative
# FII: Negative (-1849.87 Cr)
# DII: Positive (+2481.81 Cr)
# Sentiment: Risky
# Market Breadth: Negative
# Technicals: Lower high/low
# F&O: 23000 – 24500 zone.

# INDIA VIX 14.77 (-4.34%)
# Nifty PCR (28th Nov) 1.05
# Bank Nifty PCR (27th Nov) 0.96

# Nifty Outlook: The bears are likely to be everywhere.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

Nifty Technically:
Nifty (CMP: 23533)
SUPPORT: 23167/21281
RESISTANCE: 23850/24337
RANGE: 23300-23700
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 24270
50 DMA: 24895
200 DMA: 23556

Bank Nifty Technically:
BANK NIFTY (CMP 50180):
SUPPORT: 49283/46077
RESISTANCE: 50801/52201
RANGE: 49000-50500
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 51486
50 DMA: 51893
200 DMA: 49750

WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN FRIDAY’S TRADE:

# The post-election Donald Trump victory was seen taking a breather, hitting the pause button.

# Blame it on US Bond yields are expressing concerns about inflation in the wake of Donald Trump’s 2024 election win.

Yields were spiking as the bond market continued to worry about what a Trump presidency could mean for the Federal Reserve’s battle with inflation.

Rising US bond yields. (The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was up to 4.367%. The 10-year yield was up to 4.472%).

# According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are currently pricing in a 64% chance the Fed will cut the Federal Funds rate by a half-percentage point at its next meeting in December and a 36% probability it will hold rates steady.

# COMEX Gold drops towards $2562 per ounce, the lowest in one month, amid pressure from a rally for the US dollar.

# WTI crude oil futures slips towards $67.03 per barrel as concerns about weak demand from China weighed on the market.

 

NEED TO KNOW:

# Tumbling oil prices at $67 a barrel is the biggest positive catalyst.

# Having said that, Nifty is unlikely to move North as Dalal Street evaluates bearish outlook amidst FII exodus crossing Rs 29,533 crore this November.

Please note, the FIIs camp have pulled out a record Rs 1.25 lakh crore from Dalal Street since Nifty hit its peak at 26277 mark on September 27th.

# Massive destruction to Nifty bulls’ confidence seen after Nifty slipped below 200-DMA in last week’s trade.

# Well, Nifty is down around 10% from its peak.

# Anxiety and nervousness are likely to prevail in the wake of:

1) Weak leads from Wall Street in Friday’s trade, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.3%, the Dow falling by 305 points, and the Nasdaq losing 2.2%.

2) Wall Street fell after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is in no rush to cut rates citing the economy’s strength, a solid labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures.

3) The post-election Donald Trump’s victory rally lost steam.

4) Rising US bond yields. (The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was up to 4.367%. The 10-year yield was up to 4.472%).

# Long Story Short: Nifty is vulnerable to more downside as bears hunt for more downside targets.

# Our stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday, November 20th on account of Maharashtra Assembly Polls. Traders also brace Jharkhand polls which will be held on November 20th.

Counting of votes for the two states will take place on November 23.

# Now, here is our preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (23533): Sell at CMP. Stop at 23951. Targets 23450/23167. Aggressive targets at 21281-21500 zone.

Bank Nifty (50180): Sell at CMP. Stop at 52301. Targets 49700/49283. Aggressive targets at 46100-47000 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bearish on AXIS BANK, VOLTAS, NMDC and REC on any intraday strength with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Sell Right Now: Sell REC (CMP 502): Sell at CMP. Stop at 543. Targets 484/451. Aggressive targets at 408. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Overbought technical conditions. Weakening momentum. Massive breakdown is likely on the daily charts. Key hurdles 533.

 

 

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