The bear machete is seen regrouping this Friday the 13th to install a major market fall.

Market kya lagta hain@ 7.30am – Friday, December 13th 2024

# GIFT Nifty 🇮🇳: (-85, 24550)

# In yesterday’s trade, Nifty bears controlled Dalal Street and most importantly, for the 5th day in a row.

# Dampening sentiments were Middle-east geopolitical risks, trade-war fears and the rising US bond yields.

# The bear machete is seen regrouping this Friday the 13th to install a major market fall.

 

# We say so because, despite signs of easing India’s inflation, the CPI inflation remained firmly above the RBI’s 4% averages, raising risks for the RBI to commence its rate-cutting cycle only in the first quarter of 2025.

# Dampening sentiments were also negative catalysts like Middle-east geopolitical risks, trade-war fears, and the rising US bond yields.

# Overnight, Wall Street dropped in Thursday’s trade as Dow Jones logged its longest losing streak since April – its sixth straight loss

# The Negative Catalyst: The November US Producer Price Index showed that inflation remains a tough beast to tame.

US November’s producer price index rose 0.4%, doubling forecasts of 0.2%, underscoring slow progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

# The Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate policy decision is on December 18.

# The Fed is widely expected to opt for another quarter-point cut, but that said, volatility may be the hallmark as the Fed may signal a short-term pause or dial back expectations for cuts in 2025.

# Meanwhile, Brazil’s Ibovespa plunged 2.7% to close at 126,042 on Thursday, reacting to the Brazilian central bank’s unexpected 1% interest rate hike and most importantly, its guidance for two additional hikes of the same magnitude.

# The street is also evaluating and assessing whether Chinese stimulus proposals will be enough to revive the world’s second-largest economy.

# FIIs selling actually seen haunting investors at Dalal Street as in yesterday’s trade they sold to the tune of Rs. 3560 crores.

# Technically, confirmation of strength on Nifty only above 24675 mark. Nifty’s make-or-break support seen at 24441 mark.

# The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 23500-25500 zone.

Maximum Call OI is at 25000 followed by 26000 strike prices. So, 25000 mark is still Nifty’s major resistance zone.

Maximum Put open interest stands at 24000 levels followed by 23000 levels.

Call writing was seen at 24600 and then at 24500 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 23600 and then at 23800 strike prices.

# Long story short: Until, the big FIIs camp return to their buying desk, volatility will continue to be the hallmark and Nifty and its stocks just can’t not stomach higher.

# Buzzing stocks:

1) Adani Group stocks are in limelight and gaining traction after FBI Director Chris Wray announced he would step down from his position early next year. Under Chris Wray, FBI indicted Adani Group and charged them with Bribery/Corruption cases.

2) Gopal Snacks cracked -7%in yesterday’s trade after a major fire broke out at its Rajkot manufacturing plant.

3) GHCL has hit fresh record all-time-high a at Rs. 759 after after the company received environment clearance for a greenfield soda ash project.

4) Vishal Mega Mart IPO subscription status: Issue fully booked on day 2 of bidding.

5) International Gemological Institute IPO aims to raise Rs 4,225 crore. The IPO opens on December 13 and closes on December 17. The company’s IPO price band ranges from Rs 397 to Rs 417 per equity share.

# Now, here is our preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (24549): Sell at CMP. Stop at 25113. Targets 24441/24251. Aggressive targets at 23750-23900 zone.

Bank Nifty (53216): Sell at CMP. Stop at 55557. Targets 52501/51693. Aggressive targets at 51000-51300 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bullish on SIEMENS, PERSISTENT SYSTEMS and HCL TECH with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now: Buy SIEMENS (CMP 7916): Buy between 7825-7850 zone. Stop at 7653. Targets 8000/8129. Aggressive targets at 8500. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Momentum oscillators in bullish mode. Probable upside Flag Pattern breakout. Key support 7727.

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