The Week That Was @ 7:30 AM – Saturday, August 17th 2024

August 12th to August 16th 2024.

  • Despite a shakier start, Nifty wrapped up the week on a solid higher footing and most importantly, investors were unfazed by the Hindenburg (the US-based short seller) revelation research report on the SEBI chief.
  • The biggest positive takeaway is that the bull market at Dalal Street is ‘Alive & Kicking’ and most importantly, is flashing signs that Nifty could hit another all-time-high with an inter-month perspective.
  • Nifty (+0.71%, 24541)
  • Sensex (+0.92%, 80437)

Nifty started the week gone by on a wishy-washy note, with the benchmark struggling to keep its head above water following:

  1. Mixed bag of Q1 earnings reports.
  • Hindenburg-Sebi led volatility.
  • Nifty’s depressed price action simply echoed the pessimism around HDFC Bank which ended 1.10% lower after the latest MSCI rebalancing announcement which said the weight of HDFC Bank would be increased in two tranches against expectations of one single push.

# The Good News: Despite the three headwinds, the sky did not fall at Dalal Street as Nifty bulls regrouped in Friday’s trade, courtesy of bargain hunters + value buying as boosting sentiments were catalysts like:

  1. Wall Street jumping out of the gate, also helped by solid earnings from Walmart. (Please note Dow was up around 3% while Nasdaq was up 5.5% on weekly basis)
  • Mild PPI and CPI inflation reports solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September.
  • Strong retail sales numbers dismissed fears of a recession in the US.

# Bottom-line: From here on, the street will spy with one big eye on the US September jobs report to be wired on September 6th.

Hopefully, this September unemployment report gets the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

# Long story short: Investors anticipate bigger half-point interest rate cut in September rather than a quarter-point cut.

Weekly Recap:

InstrumentsLTPWeekly % Change
Nifty  24541+0.71%
Sensex  80437+0.92%
Bank Nifty50517+0.06%
Nifty Midcap16246+0.43%
India VIX14.40(-6.08%)
   
Dow Jones  40660+2.94%
Nasdaq  19509+5.38%
Bovespa  133953+2.56%
   
Crude Oil76.62 (-0.28%
Gold2498 +2.76%
Silver28.77 +4.83%
USD/INR83.88 (-0.09%)

# Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

  • Nifty ended 0.71% higher and most importantly, snapped a two-week losing streak. Nifty’s new all-time-high continues to be at 25078.30 mark.
  • Bank Nifty ended a tad higher but the positive takeaway was that it snapped a five-week losing streak. (Bank Nifty’s new all-time-high continues to be at 53357.70 mark).
  • Nifty Private Bank index inched up 0.44% higher while Nifty PSU Bank index ended 2.15% lower on weekly basis.
  • In broader markets, the Nifty Mid-cap 100 index inched 0.43% higher while the Nifty Small-cap index gained 0.14%.

Bullish Sectors:

  • Nifty IT (+4.70%)
  • Nifty Reality Index (+2.58%)
  • Nifty Auto Index (+0.99%)

Bearish Sectors:

  • Nifty Media (-2%)
  • Nifty PSE Index (-1.08%)

# In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:

  • TECH MAHINDRA +5.22%
  • WIPRO +5.08%
  • INFOSYS +4.98%
  • HCL TECH +4.92%
  • TCS +4.43%

# And the losers were:

  • DIVIS LAB (-4.06%)
  • COAL INDIA (-3.30%)
  • DR REDDYS LAB (-3.14%)
  • NTPC (-3.07%)
  • ADANI PORT (-2.63%)

STOCK SPECFIC NEWS:

  1. Ola Electric share price hit the roof as it is now up 75% from IPO issue price. (The street expects EV manufacturing costs to fall significantly by financial year 2027 – 2028, while that of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) scooters may go up due to emission standards).
  • Marksans Pharma flared up 7% to hit a record high of Rs 219.50 after the company reported strong earnings for the June 2024 quarter (Q1FY25)
  • Hindustan Copper jumped 4% after profits grow two-fold in Q1 earnings, reaching Rs 113.40 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2024.
  • HeroMoto Corp slipped 1.5% to Rs 5080 despite a massive surge in its net profit as Q1 FY25 climbed 47.3% Y-o-Y to Rs 1,032 crore. (A robust recovery seen in the 110-125 cc motorcycle segment after the launch of Xtreme, sturdy demand for its electric scooter Vida, and the promising condition of the overall economy).
  • Aarti Industries stock tumbled 19% as its management anticipates 20-30% volume growth in FY25, although margins are expected to remain under pressure for at least next 1-2 quarters due to continued dumping from China.
  • Dr Reddy’s Labs shares inched 0.11% lower at Rs. 6816 after US FDA issued an establishment inspection report (EIR) to the company, for its manufacturing facilities (FTO-7 and FTO-9) in Duvvada, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.
  • GMR Airports Infrastructure dropped 3.63% to Rs 95.50 following a weak performance in Q1FY25 a the total loss attributed widened to Rs 141.65 crore from Rs 29.80 crore in the corresponding quarter of FY24.

DISCLAIMER

  • SEBI study dated January 25, 2023 on ‘Analysis of Profit & Loss of Individual Traders dealing in equity Futures and Options (F&O) Segment’ wherein Aggregate Level findings are based on annual Profit/Loss incurred by individual traders in equity F&O during FY 2021-22.

*RISK DISCLOSURES ON DERIVATIVES:*

  • # 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.
  • # On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to 50,000.
  • # Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28%of net trading losses as transaction costs.
  • # Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.
  • Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.

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