Nifty races higher indicating the FOMO rally is alive and most importantly, is gaining strength at Dalal Street.

 

The Week That Was @ 8:30 AM – Saturday, August 24th 2024

 

The Week That Was @ 8:30 AM – Saturday, August 24th 2024

August 19th to August 23rd 2024.

Nifty races higher indicating the FOMO rally is alive and most importantly, is gaining strength at Dalal Street.

Boosting investors’ sentiments were the FOMC Minutes which indicated that the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates in September —— Well, the ‘First cut is closer and now looks imminent’.

Nifty (+1.15%, 24823)
Sensex (+0.81%, 81086)

Well, Nifty continued to ‘bask in the glow’ as the string of gains continued for 6th straight day as rebound play was the preferred theme that defied bears and most importantly signaling massive strength on the upside.

The positive catalysts:

1) Investors welcomed the July FOMC Minutes which indicated that the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates in September.

2) Powell echoes the market drum of hinting with a rate cut move.

3) The optimism at Wall Street indicates that the Federal Reserve will be successful in engineering a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy.

4) India VIX at 13.55 levels, down 5.9% on weekly basis.

5) Middle-East hostilities waning amidst diplomatic efforts to keep the Israel-Hamas war from exploding.

The biggest positive takeaway was that Nifty bulls ringed gains despite the FIIs selling was at Rs. 1609 crores in the week gone by.

# Bottom-line: Before the Fed outcome on September 18th; bullish traders will have to brace with three inflation reports and one employment report on September 6th

The three inflation reports:

1) The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge to trickle on August 30th

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI – retail inflation) report on September 11th

3) And on September 12th traders will have to brace for the Producer Price Index (PPI – wholesale inflation) report.

# Bottom-line: Dovish statements from Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech indicating time has come for interest rate cuts should ideally lift Nifty to its all-time-high at 25078.30 mark forcing even staunch bears to throw in the towel.

Weekly Recap:
Instruments LTP Weekly % Change
Nifty
24823 +1.15%
Sensex 81086 +0.81%
Bank Nifty 50933 +0.82%
Nifty Midcap 16463 +1.33%
India VIX 13.55 (-5.90%)

Dow Jones 41175 +1.27%
Nasdaq 19721 +1.09%
Bovespa 135608 +1.24%

Crude Oil 74.83 (-0.98%)
Gold 2507 -0.01%
Silver 29.66 +2.11%
USD/INR 83.84 (-0.04%)

# Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

Nifty ended 1.15% higher and most importantly, inched closer to its all-time-high continues to be at 25078.30 mark.

Bank Nifty ended higher, up 0.81% and for the second straight week. (Bank Nifty’s new all-time-high continues to be at 53357.70 mark).

Nifty Private Bank index inched up 0.98% higher while Nifty PSU Bank index ended 2.54% higher on weekly basis.

In broader markets, the Nifty Mid-cap 100 index inched 1.33% higher while the Nifty Small-cap index gained 3.48%.

Bullish Sectors:
Nifty FMCG Index (+1.92%)
Nifty Infra Index (+1.25%)
Nifty Oil & Gas Index (+1.08%)
Nifty Auto Index (+0.99%)
Nifty IT (+0.52%)

Bearish Sectors:
Nifty Reality Index (-2.43%)
Nifty PSE Index (-0.20%)

# In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:
HINDALCO +8.03%
SBI LIFE INSURANCE +5.94%
BPCL +5.92%
BAJAJ FINSERV +5.81%
HDFC LIFE +5.74%

# And the losers were:
ONGC (-3.25%)
M&M (-2.87%)
TATA MOTORS (-1.20%)
ADANI ENTERPRISES (-1.04%)
WIPRO (-0.75%)

STOCK SPECFIC NEWS:

1) InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO) was star outperformer, up 10% at Rs 4710 as the street optimistic following the airline’s introduction of business class service on key metro routes. The airline has consistently gained market share over the years led by a dense network of flights and supportive pricing power. Indigo also benefits from recent fall in oil prices towards $73 a barrel.

2) Nykaa flared up 17% and most importantly, hit a two-year high of Rs 229.80 as traders welcomed their Q1 announced; reporting 152% YoY jump in net profit of Rs 13.6 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2024 (Q1FY25).

3) Larsen & Toubro (+0.85%, 3599) was in limelight after bagging ‘large’ order for integrated infrastructure development project in town planning schemes 2 to 7 under the Navi Mumbai Airport Influence Notified Area (NAINA) Project in Maharashtra.

4) Bharat Electronics gained 0.89% at Rs. 306 after securing orders worth Rs 695 crore. The orders comprise of Combat Management System, Communication equipment, Stabilized Optronic Pedestal, Upgrades, Spares, Services etc.

5) Bharti Airtel jumped 1.59% at Rs. 1510 after its GST demand reduced to ₹194 crore from ₹604 crore by Appellate Authority.

6) Marksans Pharma flared up 8.48% to hit a record high of Rs 219.50 after the company reported strong earnings for the June 2024 quarter (Q1FY25)

7) Sun Pharma gained (+1.39%, 1775) after announcing that it has launched tedizolid phosphate tablets (200 mg) in India under the brand name ‘Starizo’.

8) Ola Electric ended 5% lower at Rs 126 after scaling record high at 157.40. Since its listing earlier this month, the stock had surged 107% over its issue price of Rs 76, more than doubling investors’ capital.

(Source: Moneycontrol, Business Standard, Economic Times)

 

 

DISCLAIMER

SEBI study dated January 25, 2023 on ‘Analysis of Profit & Loss of Individual Traders dealing in equity Futures and Options (F&O) Segment’ wherein Aggregate Level findings are based on annual Profit/Loss incurred by individual traders in equity F&O during FY 2021-22.

*RISK DISCLOSURES ON DERIVATIVES:*

# 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.

# On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to 50,000.

# Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28%of net trading losses as transaction costs.

# Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.

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