Nifty trades depressed despite President-elect Donald Trump getting ready to take office and take forward the booming US economy.

*The Week That Was @ 7:30 AM – Saturday, January 18th 2025*

January 13th 2025 to January 17th 2025.

# In the week gone by, Wall Street was zooming higher as President-elect Donald Trump was getting ready to take office and take forward the booming US economy.

Having said that, Nifty and its stocks sobbed, indicating Dalal Street is not yet fully prepared for the potential fallout from proposed Trump tariffs.

Nifty (-0.97%, 23203)
Sensex (-0.98%, 76619)

# As we record, cautiousness was seen building at Dalal Street ahead of the second Trump administration to take office on January 20th.

# The 3-big negative catalysts hurting Nifty and its stocks:

1) Record exodus from the Foreign Institutional Investors continues to the biggest headwind. (This January so far, they have sold to the tune of Rs. 46,576.20 crores).

2) The Indian Rupee hit a new record closing low at 86.68 primarily pressured by a firm dollar. (Weak Rupee makes Indian stock markets less attractive to foreign investors and raises inflation fears).

3) The negative takeaway from last week’s trade was that the Nifty ended way below its November 2024 low.

Technically speaking, from here on, any move below psychological Nifty 23000, the next inter-month supports are placed at 21281 mark (June 4th Election day low).

# Long story short: Nifty is still unable to come out of the woods.

Weekly Recap:
Instruments LTP Weekly % Change
Nifty 23203 (-0.97%)

Sensex 76619 (-0.98%)
Bank Nifty 48541 (-0.40%)
Nifty Midcap 15140 (-0.83%)
India VIX 15.75 +5.58%

Dow Jones 43550 +3.86%
Nasdaq 21451 +2.87%
Bovespa 122333 +1.28%

Crude Oil 77.87 +1.70%
Gold 2715 +1.10%
Silver 30.36 (-0.05%)
USD/INR 86.56 +0.43%

# Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

1) Nifty mostly traded with negative bias, ending the week, down 0.97%.

2) Bank Nifty too traded sluggish, ending 0.40% lower at 48541 level.

3) Nifty Private Bank index dropped 1.05% while Nifty PSU Bank index gained 3.43% on a weekly basis.

4) The broader markets were major underperformers as the Nifty Mid-cap 100 index slipped 0.83% while the Nifty Small-cap index inched 0.15% higher.

Bullish Sectors:
Nifty Metal (+3.13%)
Nifty PSE Index (+2.87%)
Nifty Energy (+2.79%)
Nifty Infra Index (+1.71%)
Nifty Oil & Gas Index (+1.41%)

Bearish Sectors:
Nifty IT (-5.78%)
Nifty Reality Index (-2.50%)
Nifty Media (-2.36%)
Nifty FMCG Index (-2.31%)
Nifty Pharma (-1.43%)
Nifty Auto Index (-0.98%)

STOCK SPECIFIC NEWS:

1) Life insurance stocks were in rally mode after HDFC Life Insurance’s healthy Q3 earnings. HDFC Life zoomed 5.5% higher in the week gone by.

2) Railway stocks like IRFC (+7.7%), RVNL (+8.4%) and Ircon (+14.5%) zoomed higher on expectations that the government may increase rail budget by 18% in FY26.

3) Reliance Industries gained 2.83% after its Q3 net profit rose 12% to record high of Rs 21,930 crore for the quarter ended December 31, driven by strong performances in its digital services, retail and oils-to-chemicals businesses.

4) Axis Bank Q3 tumbled 4.77% after its Q3 results missed streets’ estimates as Net profit rose mere 4% YoY to Rs 6,304 crore.

5) Infosys tanked 7.7% after the firm reported an 11.4% annual increase in net profit, reaching ₹6,806 crore, for Q3 FY25. Revenue grew by 7.5% to ₹41,764 crore. The company also raised its revenue growth guidance for FY25 to 4.5%-5%.

6) Bajaj Finserv slipped 1.21% on media reports that it may break its 25-year-old ties with Allianz in H1CY25, possibly as soon as this March-end.

7) HDFC AMC gained 4.84% on reporting a 31% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit to Rs 642 crore for the December quarter (Q3), an 11% rise compared to the September quarter. Revenue from operations surged 39 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 934 crore during the period.

8) Biocon zoomed +9% after USFDA clears Malaysia unit. The US FDA has classified Biocon Biologics’ insulin facilities in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, as Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI), paving the way for the company to proceed with product filings from the site.

9) Stock prices of REC and PFC jumped 5-7% after JSW Energy emerged as the winning bidder for KSK Mahanadi Power under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. (This news also brings relief to the creditors of KSK Mahanadi Power, which includes state-owned REC and PFC).

10) Avenue Supermarts (DMart) shares remained depressed, down 1.76% after the company’s December quarter (Q3FY25) results missed Street expectations. The 52-week low of DMart share is Rs 3,400.

11) HCL Tech plunged 10% on reporting a net profit for the third quarter (October–December) of FY25 at Rs 4,591 crore. Profits rose 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) and increased 8.4% sequentially. Revenue for the quarter stood at Rs 29,890 crore, up 5% YoY and growing 3.5% sequentially. HCL Technologies has raised the lower end of its FY25 revenue growth guidance to the range of 4.5% to 5%.

#  In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:
HINDALCO +7.41%
NTPC +5.81%
HDFC LIFE +5.51%
COAL INDIA +5.20%
RELIANCE (RIL) +4.87%

# And the losers were:
HCL TECH (-10.34%)
INFOSYS (-7.7%)
WIPRO (-6.19%)
M&M (-5.67%)
TRENT (-5.58%)

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# The Big Question: Investors at Dalal Street are now eager to know how long the FII camp will be off their buying desk?

Well, if you are an investor at Dalal Street – you would want the ongoing exhaustion, anxiety and great sadness to quickly shift to joy, rediscovery and optimism.

Actually, the real negative catalyst from last week’s trade was that Nifty traded depressed as FIIs shrugged-off the fact that the ‘US inflation kettle in the US is off the boil’.

Net-net, FIIs ignored the fact that there is a bright chance that the Federal Reserve could come riding in on a white horse and oblige with a big rate cut at their next policy meeting on January 28-29.

All bullish eyes also turn towards Union Budget 2025 to be released on February 1st

Well, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has the singular responsibility of proving to the big investors across globe that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic is still on. We suspect, expectations are very high, way higher than those in previous budget.

# Bottom-line: Lofty valuations at home and concerns over slowing India’s corporate earnings growth are big concerns for FIIs camp.

All bullish hopes now on Trump’s inauguration day!

 

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