# Technically, the upbeat mood can hit the pause button only if Nifty is unable to conquer the 24771 mark.

Morning Action @ 7 AM – Wednesday, August 21st 2024

# Early action at GIFT Nifty is indicating that Nifty’s 3-day rally may run out of steam…

*7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:*

• # GIFT Nifty 🇮🇳: (-11, 24707)
• # Dow Futures: (+27, 40863)
• # Nasdaq 100 Futures (+24, 19744)
• # Nikkei (-260, 37803)
• # Hang Seng (-225, 17286)
• # Dow Jones (-62, 40835)
• # Nasdaq (-60, 17817)
• # Bovespa (+309, 136087).

*MARKET TRENDS:*

• #  Global: Neutral
• #  FII: Negative (-1457.96 Cr)
• #  DII: Positive (+2252.10 Cr)
• #  Sentiment: Bullish
• #  Market Breadth: Positive
• #  Technicals: Rebound play
• #  F&O: 23900 – 25000 zone.
• #  INDIA VIX 13.82 (-3.49%)
• #  Nifty PCR (29th Aug) 1.34
• #  Bank Nifty PCR (28th Aug) 0.89
• #  Nifty Outlook: Range bound session quite likely.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

*Nifty Technically:*

• Nifty (CMP: 24699)
• SUPPORT: 24523/24205
• RESISTANCE: 24771/25100
• RANGE: 24600-24750
• BIAS: Positive
• 21 DMA: 24490
• 50 DMA: 24184
• 200 DMA: 22278

*Bank Nifty Technically:*

• BANK NIFTY (CMP 50803):
• SUPPORT: 50500/50000
• RESISTANCE: 51151/51951
• RANGE: 50500-51300
• BIAS: Positive
• 21 DMA: 50827
• 50 DMA: 51382
• 200 DMA: 47967

*WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN OVERNIGHT TRADE:*

• # As on Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% at 5,597 and the Nasdaq Composite was off 0.3% at 17,816, snapping their eight-day win streaks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to 40,834, its first loss in six days. 
• # The street is bracing for Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where the Fed Chair Powell will deliver a highly anticipated speech on Friday, August 23^rd –also will give clues on when the central bank will start cutting interest rates and by how much.
• # Hopefully, Powell is likely to give a more dovish signal…
• # From here on, the street will spy with one big eye on the US September jobs report to be wired on September 6th.
• # Hopefully, this September unemployment report gets the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Fingers crossed.
• # WTI Oil futures slumps below $73.50 per barrel on reports of cease-fire talks in Gaza and concerns about weakening demand, particularly from China.
• # COMEX Gold hit a new high ahead of Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the July Fed meeting. Gold futures were last at $ 2512 per ounce after scaling a new record at  $2,550.60 per ounce.
• Gold prices are up more than 20% for the year to date.

*NEED TO KNOW:*

• # Nifty’s last 3-days rally is again seen inspiring FOMO attraction at Dalal Street and most importantly, the street is actually hoping for more fireworks at the Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, August 23rd
• # The near-term backdrop favors Nifty bulls as the trading theme revolves around the first reduction in U.S. interest rates in more than four years.
• # Technically, the upbeat mood can hit the pause button only if Nifty is unable to conquer the 24771 mark.
• # Meanwhile, Nifty’s last 3-days rally is again inspiring FOMO attraction at Dalal Street.
• # Interestingly, the gains are despite FIIs pessimistic view.
• Please note, FIIs are on the sell side and have sold shares worth Rs 33,000 crores since the Union Budget.
• # Much of the strength and rally at Dalal Street is on backdrop of steady SIP flows by retail investors.
• DIIs so far in August have net bought stocks worth Rs 36,000 crore.
• # The street is actually hoping for more fireworks at the Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, August 23rd
• # So, the next two big events of the week:
  
  1) The July FOMC meeting minutes to be released Wednesday, August 21st.
  
  2) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday.
  
  # We will however spy with one big eye if Powell echoes the market drum of hinting with a 50-bps move.

# Now, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

• Nifty (24699): Buy between 24600-24625. Stop at 24159.  Zone. Targets 24750/24900. Aggressive targets at 25100-25300 zone.
• Bank Nifty (50803): Buy at CMP. Stop at 49701. Targets 51137/51500. Aggressive targets at 51900-52100 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bullish on NTPC, COAL INDIA and TVS MOTORS on any early weakness with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 stock to buy right now: BUY NTPC (CMP 406): Buy at CMP. Stop at  387. Targets  415/423. Aggressive targets at 437. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Momentum oscillators turning bullish. Signaling a massive rebound.

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