August 25th to August 29th 2025.

 

 

Strictly speaking, Nifty is falling hard after India getting the rough end of Trump’s trade war!

 

 

Nifty (-1.78%, 24427)

Sensex (-1.84%, 79810)

Bank Nifty (-2.71%, 53656)

 

 

1) The street is apprehensive on the 50% Trump’s tariff on over USD 48 billion worth of Indian goods.

 

The higher tariffs are likely to India’s growth, manufacturing ambitions as India loses its competitive advantages against countries where tariff have been lowered like; South Korea (15%), EU (+15%) Indonesia (+19%) Vietnam (+20%) Bangladesh (+20%).

 

2) The US July PCE Inflation is seen creeping up clouding the Fed's rate outlook.

 

 

3) Fed’s commitment to independence was a concern amidst the heat from President Donald Trump and White House officials to lower rates.

 

4) FIIs selling: Last week, the FIIs have net sold to the tune of Rs. 21152 Cr. In the month of August, FIIs net sold to the tune of Rs 46,908 Cr. This FY26, FIIs have already sld to the tune of Rs. 74159 Cr.

 

5) Uninspiring Q1 by corporate India.

 

6) Deteriorating Nifty's technical landscape with lower high/low on daily charts.

 

7)  A nervous Wall Street edges lower following sticky US PCE Inflation +overbought technical conditions.

 

# Bottom-line: Bears aim to seize Dalal Street with Nifty’s downside risk seen at its 200 DMA at 24072 mark.

 

Instruments	LTP	Weekly % Change
Nifty	24427	(-1.78%)
Sensex	79810	(-1.84%)
Bank Nifty	53656	(-2.71%)
Nifty Midcap	14665	(-3.94%)
India VIX	11.75	+0.21%
Dow Jones	45545	(-0.19%)
Nasdaq	23415	(-0.35%)
Bovespa	141422	+2.50%
Crude Oil	64.01	+0.60%
Gold	3449	+2.23%
Silver	39.73	+2.16%
USD/INR	88.15	+0.94%

 

And the negative takeaway is that even the big investors are seen fearful as the possibility of near-term melt-down is quite high as the Trump administration bringing more tariff uncertainty to a still an overbought, complacent market.

 

 

1) Nifty plunged 1.78% lower and continues to trade way below its 21 DMA (24709), 50 DMA (24998) and 100 DMA (24687) and most importantly, well below the psychological 25000 mark.

 

2) Bank Nifty (-2.71%) mostly underperformed and its technical landscape continues to look ugly as the benchmark continues to trade below its 21 DMA (55285), 50 DMA (56164) and 100 DMA (55478). Net-net, it appears the only way go for Bank Nifty is to go down with immediate downside risk at Bank Nifty’s 200-DMA at 52905 mark.

 

3) Nifty Private Bank index dropped 2.37% while Nifty PSU Bank index tumbled 3.46% lower.

 

4) The broader markets too were in panicking mode with Nifty Mid-cap 50 index falling 3.94% while the Nifty Small-cap index plunged 3.86%

 

Nifty FMCG  (+0.73%)

 

Nifty Reality (-4.28%)

Nifty Oil & Gas (-3.02%)

Nifty PSE Index (-2.84%) 

Nifty Infra (-2.56%)

Nifty Media  (-2.54%)

Nifty Energy (-2.52%)

Nifty Metal  (-2.35%)

Nifty Pharma (-2.07%)

Nifty Auto (-1.46%)

Nifty IT   (-0.73%)

 

 

1) Shares of BSE (-10.14%), Angel One (-12%) and other capital market-related firms tanked after Sebi hinted at longer F&O tenors.

 

2) Rail Vikas Nigam declined 6.5% even after signing a joint venture agreement with Texmaco Rail & Engineering for undertaking projects in the railway and allied infrastructure sectors.

 

3) Mahindra Logistics fell 3% after the company announced the resignation of chief financial officer (CFO) Saurabh Taneja, effective 19 September 2025.

 

4) HFCL declined 4.64% despite the company said that its material subsidiary, HTL, has bagged a contract worth Rs 101.82 crore from the Indian Army for the supply of tactical optical fiber cables and related accessories.

 

5) Vodafone Idea shares crashed another 8% towards Rs. 6.49 after Centre recently  ruled out further AGR relief.

 

6) Protean E-Gov Technologies (+1.9%) zoomed hinger after the company has received a Rs 1,160 crore order from the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) for the establishment and operation of district-level Aadhaar Kendras across the country.

 

7) RBL Bank (+3.12%) gained after the company’s board will meet on August 29 to consider a proposal for raising funds through a qualified institutional placement (QIP), as well as the issuance of debt securities on a private placement basis.

 

8) Indusind Bank’s (-2.7%) tumbled despite its board appointing Rajiv Anand as MD & CEO effective from August 25, 2025 for three years.

 

9) JK Paper Ltd (+7%) spiked and so did paper stocks like TNPL (+5.7%) on hopes of higher sales volume after govt imposed minimum import price to curb dumping cheap imports. (The government imposed a Minimum Import Price (MIP) on Virgin Multi-layer Paper Board (VMPB), a move aimed at curbing cheaper imports).

 

10) Eris Lifesciences (+1.79%) was consolidating with positive bias after the company said that its manufacturing unit at the company’s Ahmedabad campus has received approval from ANVISA, which is Brazil’s national health regulatory agency.

 

11) Safari Industries (India) (+6.4%) gained amidst value buying.

 

 

MARUTI  +3.08%

EICHER MOTORS  +3.01%

ITC +2.87%

HEROMOTO CORP  +1.8%

HUL  +1.14%

 

M&M  (-5.98%)

SHRIRAM FINANCE (-5.76%)

APOLLO HOSPITALS (-3.94%)

RELIANCE (-3.69%)

ADANI ENTERPRISES (-3.45%)

 

 

# The big question on every investor’ mind for next week’s trade would be: Free Fall or Dead Cat Bounce or Robust Rally Ahead?

 

# Before we get into detail, a good news which should cheer investors: 

 

India’s economy grows at faster-than-expected 7.8% in the June quarter

 

# That said, in the coming quarters the Indian economy could see impact of punitive US tariffs.

 

# Also note, the Indian rupee has dropped to record lows, breaching the 88-per-dollar mark for the first time over concerns that steep U.S. tariffs could hurt growth and further hit portfolio flows.

 

# Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will look at the incoming data points before slashing the rate on September 17th. The incoming data which we would like to spy with one big eye: The US Jobs report to be wired on Friday, September 5th.

 

# Nifty’s technical view: The interweek/intermonth risk is on the downside with immediate support seen at 24336 mark. Nifty’s major support placed at its 200 DMA at 24072 mark.

 

On the upside, Nifty will face major inter-month hurdles at 25154 mark.

 

# Our call of the week suggests to keep a close eye on the India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meet which is scheduled to meet on September 3 and 4 to discuss reducing tax rates on various goods and services. 

 

 

Caution shall continue to be the buzzword for perma-bulls camp.

 

Expect volatility to be the hallmark and hopefully, Nifty’s 200-DMA at 24072-mark acts as a very good support.

 

Fingers crossed.

 

 

 

 

 

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