Morning Action @ 7 AM – Thursday, July 3rd 2025

# Gift Nifty and U.S. stock- futures are comfortably in the green indicating Nifty bulls will aim for a positive session this Thursday.

‘Nifty Bulls’ will aim to get back to winning ways after Nasdaq and the S&P 500 notch fresh record highs.

# President Trump has announced a trade deal that will tariff Vietnam at 20% instead of the 46% tariff from "Liberation Day".

# Meanwhile, Wall Street will close early at 2:00 PM ET on Thursday in observance of Independence Day.

# The economic event to watch: Focus now turns to Thursday's 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time release of the June US jobs data.

According to CME Group's FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 23% chance the Fed will cut by a quarter-percentage point at its meeting later this month.

# Long story short: Our call of the day suggests that the trading theme revolves around anxiety ahead of July 9 Trump’s tariff deadline.

# 7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
GIFT Nifty : (+2, 25533)
Dow Futures: (+67, 44551)
Nasdaq 100 Futures (+23, 22664)

Nikkei (-81, 39681)
Hang Seng (Closed, 24221)

Dow Jones (-11, 44484)
Nasdaq Composite (+190, 20393)
Bovespa (-499, 139051).

# MARKET TRENDS:
Global cues: Positive
FII: (-1561.62 crores)
DII: (+3036.68 crores)
Sentiment: Positive
Market Breadth: Positive
Technicals: Overbought conditions.
F&O: 25000 - 26000 zone.

India VIX 12.44 (-0.66%)
USD/INR Futures (29th July) 85.73
Nifty PCR (31st July) 1.20
Bank Nifty PCR (31st July) 0.96

# Nifty Outlook: Well, despite yesterday’s drubbing, it still appears Nifty and the Indian economy seem to be in a decent bullish set-up right now.

And amidst this optimistic backdrop, it looks like there's plenty more upside to go for benchmark Nifty.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY (CMP 25453):
SUPPORT: 25371/25221
RESISTANCE: 25670/26277
RANGE: 25300-25700
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 25086
50 DMA: 24798
200 DMA: 24087

SENSEX (CMP 83410):
SUPPORT: 83000/82700
RESISTANCE: 84100/85978
RANGE: 83000-84000
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 82315
50 DMA: 81570
200 DMA: 79316

BANK NIFTY (CMP 56999)
SUPPORT: 56500/56100
RESISTANCE: 57750/58300
RANGE: 56500-57500
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 56402
50 DMA: 55663
200 DMA: 52123

WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN OVERNIGHT TRADE:

# The US indices mostly traded with positive bias amidst thin volume in Wednesday’s trade as many participants logged off early ahead of the long holiday weekend.

# Now, a reminder that Wall Street will close early on Thursday, July 3, at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time as Friday, July 4, is a full stock market holiday in honor of Independence Day.

# Gold prices ($3345 per ounce) have zoomed higher helped by wear US Dollar.

# Amidst oversold conditions backdrop, WTI crude oil futures have rebounded near the $67.21 per barrel.

LotusFunds Super Traders: The trading theme revolves around anxiety ahead of July 9 Trump’s tariff deadline.

STOCK MARKET NEWS:

# Before we start, please note, Wall Street will close early at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday in observance of Independence Day.

# There is good news on the tariff front this Thursday morning…

President Trump announced a trade deal that will tariff Vietnam at 20% instead of the 46% tariff from "Liberation Day".

# We will now spy with one big eye if the average effective tariff rate for India eventually gets settled around 15-18%

# Our call of the day suggests the markets are awaiting some big trigger to jump towards Nifty’s all-high at 26277.35 mark.

# Meanwhile, all bullish eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will trickle in on Thursday, July 3rd.

Well, if NFP data points to signs of weakness in the labor market then simply expect bullish traders to raise Fed’s dovish bets if. Alternatively, upbeat job data would force bullish traders to pare bets supporting Fed interest rate cuts in September.

# Bottom-line: Technically, the return of risk is quite likely only if Nifty slips below the 25221 mark. Until then, the preferred trading strategy would be to buy the dips.

# Amongst stock specific action:

1) Bharat Forge (+2.12%) gains after acquiring AAM India manufacturing (AAMIMCPL) at an equity value of Rs 746.46 crore.

2) Steel stocks were in action on reports that Ministry of Steel has noted that India is the only major economy, where steel consumption is growing at above 12% for the last three years. SAIL gaining 3% while Tata Steel jumped 3.64%.

# Now, before we get into detail of today’s trading session, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (25453): Buy on dips between 25325-25350 zone Stop at 25209. Targets 25750/25900. Aggressive targets at 26100-26277.35 zone.

Bank Nifty (56999): Buy between 56300-56500 zone. Stop at 55701. Targets 57000/57700. Aggressive targets at 58300-58500 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bullish on DIVIS LAB, PEL, TATA STEEL, and HPCL on any early intraday weakness with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Now: Buy PEL (CMP 6859): Buy at CMP. Stop at 6723. Targets 6923/6989. Aggressive targets at 7057. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: The stock has signalled a massive probable Flag Pattern breakout on the upside on the weekly charts and now shall aim its psychological 7000 mark. Key interweek support 6601. Major hurdles at 7057.

LotusFunds Super Traders: The trading theme revolves around anxiety ahead of July 9 Trump’s tariff deadline.

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