# All eyes will be on the RBI meeting outcome to be wired at 10:00 AM on Wednesday, October 1st.

The RBI is likely to hold rates at 5.50% on October 1 and probably all- through 2025. The RBI is likely to hold rates as global risks are adding to uncertainty.

The street will be anxious to know if the GST reforms will cushion Trump’s tariff uncertainties?

# Trade tensions with the United States and new visa criteria have clouded the economic outlook, pushing the rupee to record lows at 88.98 (October Futures).

# Also, Trump’s tariff threats have also prompted investors to pull out of Indian equity markets.

In September 2025, FIIs turned out to be net sellers to the tune of Rs 35301.50 crores.

This FY26, FIIs have already sold to the tune of Rs. 109460.40 Cr.

# So, the 2-big questions:

1) Can the RBI come to Nifty bulls’ rescue?
2) Can the benchmark Nifty snap its 8-day losing streak?

# If RBI cuts rates today, then it is likely to push growth and spur consumption further as it will build momentum to the government’s new two-slab GST reform (5% and 18%) rolled out in late September.

Please note, India’s GDP growth had hit a five-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1 FY26, up from 6.5% last year.

# The next two RBI meet are scheduled on:
December 3–5, 2025
February 4–6, 2026

# In the previous RBI meetings:

Feb 2025: Repo cut by 25 bps
Apr 2025: Another 25 bps cut (to 6%)
Jun 2025: A jumbo 50 bps cut (to 5.5%)
Aug 2025: Repo rate held at 5.5% with a neutral stance.

DISCLAIMER

Our clients may have positions in the stocks mentioned in this note. Kindly note that our clients may receive additional information in real time not available to the viewers of this note.

This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. Returns mentioned herein are in no way a guarantee or promise of future returns. Stock market investments are subject to market risks.

RISK DISCLOSURES ON DERIVATIVES:

# 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.

# On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to 50,000.

# Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28%of net trading losses as transaction costs.

# Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

This does not construe to be an investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. All information is a point of view, and is for educational and informational use only. The author accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments.