The Week Ahead @ 4 PM, Sunday, August 10th 2025

It will be all about the tariffs, tariffs and tariffs.

# Our call of the week suggests to keep a close eye on the Next 3-Big Catalysts from Wall Street:

1) The US CPI on Tuesday, August 12th and that will move the needle towards a 25 or 50bp rate cut for September.

2) All eyes will be on Fed Governor Christopher Waller who is a leading contender to head the US central bank, bolstering market bets on a September rate cut.

Please note, there are still 3-FOMC meetings to take place this year 2025: September, October and December.

3) U.S. retail sales for July 2025 will be announced on August 15.

# Moving forward, the next 5-key catalysts which will command investors’ attention:

1) Investor attention will remain squarely focused on President Trump’s trade war and closely monitor international trade developments after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a nearly 50% tariff on Indian imports.

2) Also, all eyes will be on corporate India’s Q1 earnings season which enters its final leg as concerns rise about a lacklustre earnings season.

3) India’s CPI rate for the month of July will be unveiled on August 12. (India’s consumer price inflation eased for the eighth straight month, falling to 2.1% in June 2025 — the lowest level since January 2019 — down from 2.82% in May).

4) India’s WPI inflation figure for July 2025 will be made public on August 14. (India’s wholesale prices unexpectedly fell by 0.13% year-on-year in June 2025, reversing from 0.39% growth in May. This marked the first annual decline in wholesale prices since October 2023).

5) Passenger vehicle sales data for July 2025 will be released on August 15.

Key corporates to announce their Q1 results this week are as follows:

Monday, August 11th: BATAINDIA, BEML, TITAGARH

Tuesday, August 12th: ABBOTINDIA, ALLCARGO, APOLLOHOSP, HAL, HINDALCO, JINDASTEL, MRF, NYKAA, PIIND, ZYDUSLIFE

Wednesday, August 13th: ABFRL, AVANTIFEED, BPCL, HINDCOPPER, IRCTC, JUBLFOOD, MUTHOOTFIN, PFIZER

Thursday, August 14th: ASHOKLEY, COFFEEDAY, DBREALTY, GLENMARK, IOC, PATANJALI

# Long Story Short: Nifty’s recent selling could take a breather on backdrop improving leads from Wall Street.

Amongst key IPO this week, BlueStone Jewellery is a bookbuilding of ₹1,540.65 crores. The issue is a combination of fresh issue of 1.59 crore shares aggregating to ₹820.00 crores and offer for sale of 1.39 crore shares aggregating to ₹720.65 crores. The IPO opens for subscription on August 11, 2025 and closes on August 13, 2025. The allotment for the BlueStone Jewellery IPO is expected to be finalized on Thursday, August 14, 2025. BlueStone Jewellery IPO will be list on BSE, NSE with a tentative listing date fixed as Tuesday, August 19, 2025.

# Technically, Nifty forms a bearish candle on the weekly and monthly charts, indicating tough resistance to continue at its 21-DMA at 24885 mark. Major inter-month resistance at 25251 mark. Meanwhile, the biggest interweek support for Nifty will be at its 200-DMA at 24043 mark and the downside risk is seen at 23936 (low as on May 9th)

Hopefully, Nifty’s 200 DMA at 24043-mark acts as a very good support.

Fingers crossed.

The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 23500-25300 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 25000 followed by 26000 strike prices. 25000 mark is now Nifty’s immediate resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 24000 levels followed by 24500 levels. Call writing was seen at 24600 and then at 24500 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 23900 and then at 24100 strike prices.

Price Forecast:
Nifty CMP (24363)
Support : 23936/23550
RESISTANCE: 24851/25221
RANGE: 24099-24551
200 DMA: 25043
Nifty PCR: 0.95
BIAS: Neutral

Bank Nifty CMP (55005)
Support: 53700/52900
RESISTANCE: 56200/57775
RANGE: 53800-54800
200 DMA: 52678
BankNifty PCR: 0.85
BIAS: Neutral

Preferred trade for the week:

Nifty (24363): Buy at CMP. Targets at 24600/24851. Aggressive targets at 25000 zone. Stop at 23936.

TOP SECTORS
# Bullish Sector: PSUBANKS, METALS
# Bearish Sector: FMCG, PHARMA, REALTY, ENERGY

STOCKS IN FOCUS:

# BULLISH VIEW: BPCL, HINDPETRO, PIDILITE, MARUTI, TITAN

# BEARISH VIEW: NESTLEIND, BIOCON, PGEL, KALYANKJIL, BSE, ASTRAL, BDL, TITAGARH, BRITANNIA, COFORGE, APOLLOHOSP, DIVISLABS

Sell ADANI PORTS

CMP 1325
Target Price 1297/1265/1207
Stop 1403
52 Week H/L 1556/993.85
P/E 25.2
EPS (TTM) 10.12
Promoter Holding/FIIs/DIIs/FIIs/Public 65.89%/13.53%/15.15%/5.46%
Book Value 228
Market Cap (INR) 286218

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZ) is the largest commercial ports operator in India accounting for nearly one-fourth of the cargo movement in the country. Its presence across 13 domestic ports in seven maritime states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha presents the most widespread national footprint with deepened hinterland connectivity.

The port facilities are equipped with the latest cargo-handling infrastructure which is not only best-in-class, but also capable of handling the largest vessels calling at Indian shores. The ports are equipped to handle diverse cargos, from dry cargo, liquid cargo, crude to containers.

The Company’s integrated services across three verticals, i.e. Ports, Logistics and SEZ, has enabled it to forge alliances with leading Indian businesses making APSEZ an undisputed leader in the Indian port sector.

Adani Ports shares fell despite a decent Q1FY26 as denting sentiments were reports that Gautam Adani has stepped down as executive chairman. Gautam Adani resigned from his position as executive chairman of the company and has been re-designated as non-executive chairman APSEZ. Manish Kejriwal has been appointed as additional director (Non-Executive, Independent) of the company.

The expected sluggishness in the sector amidst US-India tariff also is likely to dent sentiments for the stock with the transport infrastructure sector also experiencing a drop.

Meanwhile, Adani Ports registered a 6.5% jump in consolidated net profit at ₹3,314.59 crore for the first quarter of the financial year 2024-26 (FY26). Adani Ports had registered a profit of ₹3,112.83 crore in the year-ago period. The company's net profit rose 9.9% from ₹3,014.22 crore on a sequential basis.

The company's revenue for Q1 FY26 stood at ₹9,126.14 crore, rising 31.1% from ₹6,956.32 crore year-on-year (Y-o-Y). The revenue increased 7.5% from ₹8,488.44 crore during the March quarter.

Ebidta jumped to ₹5,495 crore.

The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) jumped 13% to ₹5,495 crore in Q1 FY26 from ₹4,848 crore during the same period last year.

Technical Outlook: The stock at the moment is witnessing massive bearish breakdown on the daily and weekly charts and that’s on backdrop of one way down move since July 2025.

The stock price is also below its intermediate June 2025 low at 1331 mark. Major supports are now placed at its 200-DMA at 1265. The negative takeawy is that the stock is currently way below its 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, indicating bearish trend to prevail in near term.

The recent sequence of lower high/low is still intact on the daily and weekly time frames which is on a backdrop of a ‘Double Top’ pattern on the daily charts. Now below 1265-mark, momentum selling is quite likely.

Preferred Strategy: Simply sell at CMP, and on strength between 1350-1365 zone, targeting 1297/1265 mark and then at 1207 mark. Stop above 1403. Holding Period: 1-3 Months.

Disclaimer: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.