July 21st to July 25th 2025.

 

The bears were everywhere at Dalal Street as investors were mauled by the ‘Rampaging Bear’.

 

Well, this bear attack reminded the main character in The Revenant: A big fearsome bear attacked again and again.

 

Nifty (-0.53%, 24837)

Sensex (-0.36%, 81463)

 

The negative takeaway was that Nifty and its stocks got the same bearish treatment for the 4th the straight week.

 

 

1) Uninspiring Q1FY26 by Indian corporates.

2) Anxiety ahead of the outcome of agreements between the US-India trade developments.

3) Overbought technical conditions.

4) Massive profit booking and long unwinding.

5) FII selling: This July, the FIIs have net sold to the tune of Rs. 30287 crores.

 

# The gyan mantra: Initiating aggressive long positions at Dalal Street is like building a skyscraper on top of quicksand. 

 

Caution continues to be the buzzword for perma-bulls camp

 

# Long Story Short: The possibility of further melt-down is quite high as Trump administration brings more tariff uncertainty to an overbought, complacent market.

 

Weekly Recap: Instruments LTP Weekly % Change

Nifty 24837(-0.53%)

 

Sensex 81463(-0.36%)

Bank Nifty 56528 +0.44%

Nifty Midcap 16335 (-1.87%)

India VIX 11.27 (-1.03%)

 

Dow Jones 44902+1.26%

Nasdaq  23272+0.90%

Bovespa  133524+0.11%

 

Crude Oil 65.07 (-1.48%)

Gold 3337 (-0.42%)

Silver 38.15 (-0.03%)

USD/INR 86.50 +0.41%

 

 

1) Nifty ended 0.53% lower and the losing streak continued for 4th straight week. 

 

2) Bank Nifty (+0.44%) managed to end the week above the dotted lines, and most importantly, was seen slightly outperforming Nifty’s (-0.53%) loss. That said, Bank Nifty ended the week on a jittery/slippery note.

 

3) Nifty Private Bank index ended 0.25% higher while Nifty PSU Bank index slumped 2.22% lower.

 

4) The broader markets were seen drifting down amidst profit booking as the Nifty Mid-cap 50 index fell 1.87% while the Nifty Small-cap index plunged 3.51%.

 

Nifty Pharma (+0.31%)

 

Nifty Media  (-5.72%)

Nifty Reality (-4.93%)

Nifty IT   (-4.09%)

Nifty Oil & Gas (-3.53%)

Nifty FMCG  (-3.47%)

Nifty Energy (-2.71%)

Nifty PSE Index (-1.73%) 

Nifty Infra (-1.63%)

Nifty Auto (-0.47%)

Nifty Metal  (-0.35%)

 

 

1) IT earnings disappointment weighed on sentiments as INFY dropped 4.4%, COFORGE tumbled 9%, Persistent tanked 7.16%, Tech Mahindra fell 5.6% and WIPRO was down 2.9%.

 

2) Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) crashed 29% after the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) announced approval for market coupling. This step has raised concerns over IEX's dominant standing in power trading as it may now face intensified competition.

 

IEX however came up with decent Q1FY26 as Cons PAT jumped 25% YoY to Rs 120 crore, revenue rose 19%

 

3) Nestle’s stock price dropped 8% to emerge as top Nifty loser as Q1 net profit missed estimates. 

 

(Chairman and MD Suresh Narayanan said that elevated consumption prices across the commodity portfolio impacted the company's earnings in Q1).

 

4) Oberoi Realty declined 7.46% after the company reported a 27.9% decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 421.25 crore on 29.7% fall in net sales to Rs 987.55 crore in Q1 June 2025 over Q1 June 2024.

 

5) Reliance Industries (RIL) plunged 5.71% after its Q1 numbers missed estimates across key business segments.

 

6) RBL Bank fell 1.29% after the private lender's standalone net profit tumbled 46.07% to Rs 200.33 crore in Q1 FY26 as against Rs 371.52 crore posted in Q1 FY25. 

 

7) Bajaj Twins (Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv) crashed around 5% as investors reacted sharply to signs of rising credit stress and increased provisioning, despite double-digit growth in profit and loan volumes.

 

8) Canara Bank’s stock price slipped 3.22% even after its asset quality in the June quarter improved on a sequential basis.

 

(Canara Bank's gross NPA improved to 2.69% from 2.94% last quarter, while Net NPA improved to 0.63% from 0.7% in the previous quarter).

 

9) Dalmia Bharat (-0.95%) dropped despite Q1FY26 PAT climbs 179% YoY to Rs 393 cr, compared to Rs 141 crore posted in Q1 FY25.

 

10) Force Motors jumped 7.5% after the company reported a 52.4% jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 176.33 crore in Q1 FY26 compared with Rs 115.70 crore in Q1 FY25. Net sales increased 21.9% YoY to Rs 2297.25 crore in Q1 June 2025.

 

11) Dixon Tech (+4.64%) gains as PAT doubles to Rs 280 cr in Q1 FY26. 

 

12) Eternal zoomed 21% after its quick commerce business, Blinkit, surpassed the food delivery segment in revenue during Q1 FY26. Eternal's quick commerce segment (Blinkit) Q1 revenue stood at Rs 2,400 crore (+155% YoY), surpassing the food ordering and delivery segment revenue of Rs 2,261 crore (+16.43% YoY).

 

13) Info Edge (Naukri) gained 5% as the firm holds a 12.38% stake in Eternal as of June 2025, saw its shares benefit sharply from Eternal's rally. 

 

 

ETERNAL (+21%)

ICICI BANK (+3.6%)

CIPLA (3.39%)

HDFC LIFE (+3.09%)

HINDALCO (+2.6%)

 

NESTLE (-8%)

TRENT (-6.18%)

RELIANCE (-5.7%)

TECH MAHINDRA (-5.6%)

INDUSIND BANK (-5.3%)

SHRIRAM FINANCE (-4.6%)

 

 

# Please note: Bear attacks can be terrifying, but they're normal, inevitable and – most importantly – they don't last forever.

 

# Technically, Nifty forms a bearish candle on the weekly charts, indicating tough resistance to continue at recent highs at 25421 area. Immediate Resistance at 25100 mark.

 

Meanwhile, the biggest interweek support for Nifty will be at 24473 (low as on June 13th). Below Nifty 24473, the downside risk is seen at 23936 (low as on May 9th )  

 

# Our call of the week suggests to keep a close eye on the upcoming 3-biggest catalysts:

 

1) Trump’s tariff deal with India ahead of the August 1 deadline.

 

2) FOMC Meeting outcome on Wednesday, July 30th 

 

3) Also, all eyes will be on corporate India’s Q1 earnings season as concerns rise about a lacklustre earnings season.

 

 

# Long Story Short: Nifty’s bullish constructive stance only above 25421 mark. Until then caution should be the buzzword.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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