Morning Action @ 7 AM – Monday, July 21st 2025

# Gift Nifty is indicating a tepid start for the benchmark Nifty as attention remains focused on:

1) Any potential agreements US-India trade developments.
2) Traders brace for a busy week of big-corporate earnings.

# Long Story short: Volatility lies ahead amidst the familiar uncertainty: Potential US-India trade developments.

# 7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
GIFT Nifty: (-23, 25011)
Dow Futures: (+55, 44397)
Nasdaq 100 Futures (+51, 23116)

Nikkei (-82, 39819)
Hang Seng (CLOSED, 24826)

Dow Jones (-142, 44342)
Nasdaq Composite (+10, 20896)
Bovespa (-2183, 133382)

# MARKET TRENDS:
Global cues: Negative
FII: (+374.74 crores)
DII: (+2103.51 crores)
Sentiment: Risky
Market Breadth: Neutral
Technicals: Overbought conditions.
F&O: 24500 - 26000 zone.

India VIX 11.39 (+1.33%)
USD/INR Futures (29th July) 86.18
Nifty PCR (31st July) 0.92
Bank Nifty PCR (31st July) 0.73

# Nifty Outlook: Keeping traders busy will be the upcoming India and the US bilateral trade pact ahead of the August 1st deadline.

Investors will hope for a favorable deal towards India.

Finger Crossed.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY (CMP 24968):
SUPPORT: 24850/24473
RESISTANCE: 25251/25421
RANGE: 24850-25200
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 25308
50 DMA: 25036
200 DMA: 24064

SENSEX (CMP 81758):
SUPPORT: 81300/80354
RESISTANCE: 82500/84100
RANGE: 81300-82300
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 82961
50 DMA: 82213
200 DMA: 79244

BANK NIFTY (CMP 56283)
SUPPORT: 56000/55149
RESISTANCE: 57100/57615
RANGE: 55800-56800
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 56896
50 DMA: 56163
200 DMA: 52348

WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN FRIDAY’S TRADE:

# Wall Street mostly traded negative bias in Friday’s trade as investors weighed President Trump’s push for higher tariffs on the European Union.

# In Friday’s trade, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished mostly muted near their records, while the Dow Jones dropped 142 points, dented by a 2.2% decline in American Express shares.

# In the week gone by, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.59% and 1.51%, respectively, each scaling fresh all-time highs, while the Dow ended with 0.07% loss.

# Copper prices traded firm at $5.55 per pound as the theme revolves around Trump announcing plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports.

# Gold prices ($3353 per ounce) was seen consolidating with positive bias.

# WTI crude oil futures fell and were seen trading with slight positive bias, now near the $67.39 per barrel.

STOCK MARKET NEWS:

# The negative takeaway from last week’s trade was that the smile was clearly missing at the bulls’ camp, and most importantly, even the vision was blurred.

# Keeping bearish trade alive were 4-key negative catalysts like:

1) The impact of President Donald Trump's latest barrage of tariff threats.

2) Trump’s tariff deal with India.

3) Corporate India’s Q1 earnings season as concerns rise about a lackluster earnings season.

4) FII selling: In the week gone by, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 6672 crores.

# The chances are bright that the sentiment could shift to bullishness, as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and RIL earnings remain solid.

1) HDFC BANK reported a 12% year-on-year growth in its Q1FY26 standalone net profit at Rs 18,155 crore. Furthermore, HDFC Bank announced its first-ever bonus share issuance at a 1:1 ratio held by the members of the bank as on the record date of August 27.

2) ICICI Bank reported a 15.5% year-on-year increase in net profit to Rs 12,768.21 crore for the fiscal first quarter.

3) Reliance Industries reported highest-ever consolidated quarterly EBITDA and net profit during the quarter, backed by telecom, retail and oil-to-chemical businesses. Mukesh Ambani believes that the performance of businesses and growth initiatives gives confidence that Reliance will continue its stellar track record of doubling every 4-5 years.

# Our call of the day suggests Nifty’s bullish constructive stance only above 25421 hurdles.

# Keeping traders busy will be the upcoming India and the US bilateral trade pact ahead of the August 1st deadline.

Investors will hope for a favorable deal towards India.

# Commanding attention will be Q1 Corporate India’s earnings season.

Monday, July 21st: DHANLAKSHMI BANK, SGI GREENPACK, GANESH HOUSING, ETERNAL, IDBI BANK, ULTRATECH CEMENT, OBEROI REALITY, PNB HOUSING FINANCE, HAVELLS INDIA, CRISIL

# Now, before we get into detail of today’s trading session, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (24968): Buy at CMP. Stop at 24709. Targets 25209/24421. Aggressive targets at 25670-27000 zone.

Bank Nifty (56283): Buy at CMP. Stop at 55003. Targets 56700/57615. Aggressive targets at 58100-58300 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bullish on HDFC AMC, SOBHA DEVELOPERS, PRESTIGE ESTATES and JINDAL STEEL on any early excessive intraday declines with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now: Buy JINDAL STEEL (CMP 957): Buy at CMP. Stop at 921. Targets 981/1011. Aggressive targets at 1051. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Massive breakout play on cards. Momentum oscillators in bullish mode. Key interweek support 929. Confirmation of strength above major hurdles at 981.

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